OECD Team Analyzes Global Health-Systems Capacity During COVID-19
Introduction
Our Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Team tracked and visualized the specific policy responses that individual countries implemented to strengthen the resilience of their health systems.
The Case Team Lead, Ashan Rodriguez, worked with Giovana Manfrin, Jessica Scazzero, Maria Burzillo, and Max Shakespeare on this project. Carina Peng served as the team’s Engagement Coordinator.
Check out their final deliverable in the story map linked here and embedded below:
Methodology & Findings
First, the team analyzed pre-COVID-19 health-related statistics that proxy for the strength and resilience of health systems. Health-related population variables – such as life expectancy or obesity – provide a close indication of the general health of a country’s population. Check out the team’s interactive dashboard below, which highlights population vulnerability, hospital beds, health spending, and vaccine rates.
Then, the team assessed the measures adopted by individual OECD countries in response to COVID-19. Examined policy measures included accelerated R&D for vaccines and treatment, encouraging telemedicine and smarter use of data, and increasing supplies of diagnostic tests, PPE, ventilators, essential medicines.
Next, the team used the popular SEIR epidemic model to visualize differences between disease models on estimating the trajectories of COVID-19. Specifically, the team analyzed these differences based on slightly different reproduction numbers estimated from recent COVID-19 studies [see the OECD's Policy Brief Testing for COVID-19: A way to lift confinement restrictions for further details and sources].
To further examine best courses of policy action in the future, the team conducted a case study on the situation in Wuhan, in which internal restrictions were found to decrease the daily mean reproduction rate from 2.35 to 1.05 (from the OECD's Policy Brief Flattening the COVID-19 peak: Containment and mitigation policies).
50-60% of a population needs to be immune to the virus to in order to halt its spread. The importance of effective policy measures is paramount: they will prevent health-care systems from being overburdened, help reduce the reproduction rate, and limit the toll on human lives.
The team also concluded that 50-60% of a population needs to be immune to the virus to in order to halt its spread. Therefore, the importance of effective policy measures is paramount: they will prevent health-care systems from being overburdened, help reduce the reproduction rate, and limit the toll on human lives. If left to self-eradicate, the disease could kill 510,000 in the United Kingdom or 2.2 million in the United States.
Additionally, the rate of COVID-19 transmission and the lack of healthcare affordability were found to be closely associated: high levels of out-of-pocket payments have discouraged people from seeking early diagnosis and treatment. This contributed to an acceleration in the rate of COVID-19 transmission.
Conclusion
The team’s work provides a valuable tool for policymakers and researchers through analyzing a country’s "preparedness." Through a thorough analysis of the health-system responses and policies implemented by individual OECD countries, the team’s findings offer insights to enact not only effective health policy during the remainder of COVID-19, but also preparation for potential future pandemics.
Disclaimer: “The COVID-19 story” has largely evolved since the beginning of the project from March to April.
This article reports the work of Harvard College Data Analytics Group’s COVID-19 Crisis Response Team. Edited by Kelsey Wu.